Kev xav yuav tsum tuaj tos, lub khw yuav ua rau cov nqi txhuas tuaj yeem ua kom nce ntxiv
Txij thaum xaus ntawm lub yim hli ntuj, kev txhawj xeeb nyob rau ntawm qhov kev thov theem tau txuas ntxiv rau hnyav ntawm txhuas tus nqi. Vim li ntawd, Shanghai aluminium futures cov nqi tau poob los ze li ntawm 9%, thiab txhuas lub tswvyim cov khoom kuj tseem poob ntuag. Tus brokerages ntseeg hais tias nyob rau hauv qhov kev cai-kev hloov kho txoj cai, cov nyhuv ntawm electrolytic aluminium destocking yog qhov tseem ceeb; cov khoom noj tau zoo tshaj plaws ua rau ua rau cov khoom nyhav siab dua, thiab cov khoom ntim ntawm cov khoom ntim tau thaiv; nyob rau thawj peb lub quarters, cov khoom siv roj ntsha electrolytic txo qis dua, thiab nrog rov qab ntawm cov lag luam downstream, qhov kev xav tau yuav tsum tuaj tos yav tom ntej. Txhuas nqe.
Aluminium lag luam downturn
Txij li thaum lub Yim Hli 31, Shanghai Aluminium Futures tau ceev nws txoj kev poob siab. Thaum Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 16, txoj kev cog lus tseem ceeb tau poob los ntawm 8.96% los yog 1,355 yuan / ton, thiab kaw ntawm 13,760 yuan / ton. LME txhuas tus nqi kuj tau hloov zuj zus txij thaum Lub Kaum Hli 4, nrog rau kev poob qis ntawm 13.27%, tam sim no kaw $ 1,947 / ton.
Lub as thiv tas los, Shanghai Txhuas pom nws cov momentum stabilized thiab rebounded 0.15% thoob plaws hauv lub limtiam. Tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm qhov chaw nyob hauv Yangtze River dhau los yog 13,764 yuan / ton, li 100 yuan / ton ntawm lub lim piam dhau los, nce 0.73%. Lub lag luam tus nqi ntawm seem aluminium yog ruaj khov thiab kev ua lag luam tus nqi ntawm txhuas txhaws ingots poob.
"Raws li kev ua qeeb nyob rau hauv Suav teb txoj kev loj hlob muaj peev xwm ua rau muaj kev txhawj xeeb tshiab, qhov kev ua lag luam hlau tau ua txhua yam. Qhov nruab nrab ntawm tus nqi seem ntawm cov khoom seem hauv qes tau poob qis me ntsis, tus neeg xav tsis txaus siab rau kev yuav khoom tsis siab, thiab xav kom ua lag luam muaj qis dua, "said Zhu Shanshan, kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm Zhuo Chuang.
Raws li Fubao cov ntaub ntawv, khoom muag, 341,000 tons hauv Shanghai, 628,000 tons hauv Wuxi, 99,000 tons hauv Hangzhou, 76,000 tons hauv Gongyi, 209,000 tons hauv Nanhai, 51,000 tons hauv Tianjin, 25,000 tons hauv Linyi, Chongqing 24,000 tons, khoom ntawm aluminium kauv tag nrho cov 1.453 lab tons, txo tus nqi ntawm 32,000 tons hauv ib lub lis piam.
Huatai Futures hais tias nyob hauv tsev, tus nqi txhuas tam sim no tseem qis tshaj qhov kev lag luam nruab nrab nqi, thiab tus nqi tseem nce me ntsis. Yog li ntawd, lub peev xwm ntawm cov khoom tsim tawm hlau ntau lawm vim cov nyiaj poob haujlwm tseem nce ntxiv. Tam sim no, qhov tshiab ntxiv peev ntawm Electrolytic aluminium tseem ntau tshaj li qhov txo cov peev xwm txo, thiab cov khoom muag tseem 1.41 lab tons. Yog li ntawd, txawm tias qhov teeb meem tam sim no tseem tswj tau, qhov kev kwv yees tam sim no qhov khoom seem tseem tsis txaus kom txo cov khoom ntawm ntau tshaj 1 lab tons, thiab nqes qaum. Maj mam nkag lub caij tawm ntawm lub caij tawm lub caij nyoog, cov nqi txhuas yuav cia siab nyob qis thiab tsis muaj zog.
Xav tias tus nqi qis tshaj li thaj tsam xws li Shandong tau deb tshaj qhov tam sim no txhuas tus nqi, Huatai Futures ntseeg hais tias yog cov txhuas txhuas txhawm rau txo lawv cov khoom los ntawm ib qho loj npaum li cas vim poob yav tom ntej, nws yuav tsum hais tias cov nqi txhuas yuav tsum tsis txhob poob thiab rov qab, yog li nws yuav tsum tshem tawm cov kev pabcuam ntawm lub cua sov rau lub caij. Tseem muaj kev txhawb nqa, tab sis cov txiaj ntsig ntawm kev pab cuam tseem nyob ntawm seb puas yuav txo qoob zog ntawm cov khoom siv hlau electrolytic hauv lub lag luam. Ntawm qhov tod tes, los ntawm qhov muag pom, qhov tshiab ntxiv ntawm cov khoom ntawm electrolytic aluminium nyob rau plaub lub quarter yuav muab siab rau txhuas tus nqi, tab sis yog hais tias tus nqi rov los dua, nws yuav cuam tshuam qhov tso tawm tus nqi ntawm cov peev tshiab.
Kev xav yuav tsum tuaj tos
Lub Al-txuas cov stocks kuj tau ua tsis muaj zog. Lub Shenwan Aluminium secondary kev lag luam index tau poob los ntawm 35% txij thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo. Tus neeg stocks xws li Mingtai Aluminium tau poob 22.82% txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo.
Muaj Securities Analyst Qiu Zuxue hais tias tus nqi ntawm electrolytic txhuas tus qauv tau poob kom deb li deb, thiab cov kev ntsuam xyuas tau tsis tshua muaj tsawg xyoo nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los.
Tab sis qhov tseeb, cov txiaj ntsim ntawm cov khoom siv hlau electrolytic txhuas feem ntau tau zoo dua yav tas los ob lub xyoo, thiab cov nyiaj seem tau kho tau zoo dua. Nyob rau hauv ib sab, lub stock nqi poob sharply, thiab nyob rau lwm cov tes, qhov nyiaj tau rebound ntawm lub tuam txhab loj nyob rau hauv kev lag luam, uas ncaj qha mus coj mus rau tam sim no qis nqi ntawm electrolytic txhuas tuam txhab nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los.
Qiu Zuxue tau hais tias qhov zoo tshaj hauv kev lag luam tseem nce zuj zus. Ua ntej, lub expansion ntawm electrolytic txhuas muaj peev xwm tau curbed. Nyob rau hauv ib sab tes, kev ua raws cai yuav txiav txim siab lub qab nthab ntawm txoj kev lag luam muaj peev xwm; nyob rau lwm cov tes, lub xeev lub hwj chim txoj cai policy txhawb. Txij mus txog rau tam sim no, lub peev xwm ntawm cov roj ntsha electrolytic txij thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo no yeej muaj qis tshaj qhov kev xav ua lag luam thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo. Thib ob, xav zoo txog qhov kev thov rau cov khoom siv hlau electrolytic hauv 2019. Thaum xyoo 2018, vim muaj kev nyab xeeb nyob rau hauv lub xyoo pib, qee cov chaw ua lag luam tsim thiab qee qhov kev xav tau qeeb ntawm cov khoom poob qis. Tsis tas li ntawd, qhov kev lag luam loj heev tau ua rau muaj kev lag luam thiab nrawm los ntawm lwm qhov teeb meem, uas ua rau poob rau hauv kev lag luam zuag qhia tag nrho. Nyob rau hauv 2019, kev noj nws tus kheej yuav tsum nce. Nyob rau hauv 2019, cov kev pabcuam ntawm cov cuab yeej cuab tam yuav tsum tau nce cov nuj nqis ntawm kev tsim kho vaj tse, thiab kev txhim kho txhim kho ntawm kev muag khoom thiab kev muag khoom ntawm kev lag luam tsheb yuav txhawb nqa cov khoom siv ntawm electrolytic.
Southwest Securities ntseeg hais tias nyob rau hauv txoj cai ntawm kev ua lag luam, cov txiaj ntsig ntawm electrolytic aluminium destocking yog qhov tseem ceeb; cov khoom noj tau zoo tshaj plaws ua rau ua rau cov khoom nyhav siab dua, thiab cov khoom ntim ntawm cov khoom ntim tau thaiv; nyob rau thawj peb lub quarters, cov khoom siv roj ntsha electrolytic txo qis dua, thiab nrog rov qab ntawm cov lag luam downstream, qhov kev xav tau yuav tsum tuaj tos yav tom ntej. Txhuas nqe.
