Raws li xov xwm txawv teb chaws nyob rau lub Ob Hlis 21, lub ntiaj teb thawj aluminium tsim tau nce 3.4 feem pua rau xyoo rau 5.836 lab tons hauv Lub Ib Hlis, raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm hnub Monday los ntawm International Aluminium Institute (IAI).
Cov ntaub ntawv tseem qhia tau tias lub ntiaj teb aluminium ntau lawm tau nce 2 feem pua rau 69 lab tons hauv 2022.
Cov nqi txhuas tau xav tias yuav nce xyoo no thaum muaj kev cuam tshuam txog kev xa khoom thiab kev thov, tshwj xeeb yog los ntawm Tuam Tshoj, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas kev lag luam tau hais.
Fitch Solutions Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Lag Luam thiab Lub Tebchaws Risk tau hais hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm tias nws xav tias tus nqi txhuas yuav nce siab, tab sis tsis yog qhov siab tshaj plaws pom hauv 2022.
Goldman Sachs tau hais nyob rau hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm tias nws xav tias cov nqi txhuas yuav nce ntxiv, thaum lwm tus kws tshuaj ntsuam tau hais txog kev txiav cov khoom lag luam ntawm qee lub chaw tsim khoom hauv Suav teb thiab cov khoom lag luam poob ntawm aluminium ingots hauv Suav teb raws li cov teeb meem loj.
Cov neeg koom ua lag luam xav tias qhov kev thov aluminium thoob ntiaj teb yuav nce siab hauv 2023, nrog rau kev kwv yees kev siv yuav loj hlob los ntawm 4.7 feem pua.
"Peb tuav peb qhov nruab nrab 2023 txhuas tus nqi kwv yees ntawm $ 2,600 ib tonne, nrog rau peb cov kev kwv yees hais tias cov nqi yuav nyob ze rau qib tam sim no hauv 2023 vim muaj kev txwv tsis tu ncua thiab kev cia siab rov qab los hauv Suav xav tau, uas tuaj yeem txhawb kev thov," Fitch Solutions Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Lag Luam thiab Lub Tebchaws Risk tau hais.
Goldman Sachs xav kom cov nqi txhuas nyob rau nruab nrab $ 3,125 ib tonne hauv 2023, nce los ntawm nws qhov kev kwv yees yav dhau los ntawm $ 2,563 ib tonne.
Lub tuam txhab peev nyiaj cia siab tias cov nqi txhuas yuav ncav cuag $ 3,570 ib tonne hauv 12 lub hlis tom ntej.
Teb chaws Europe cov txhuas smelters ntsib teeb meem
Goldman Sachs xav tias muaj zog txhuas tus nqi feem ntau yog vim "nce kev cia siab ntawm cov khoom tsis txaus vim qhov xav tau ntau ntxiv los ntawm Tuam Tshoj thiab European lub teb chaws."
European aluminium smelters tseem ntsib cov teeb meem, raws li ING Xav, kev tsom xam nyiaj txiag thiab kev lag luam caj npab ntawm Dutch bank ING.
Fitch Solutions tau hais tias "Peb tsis cia siab tias cov nqi txhuas yuav rov qab mus rau lawv qhov siab tshaj xyoo 2022 vim tias kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb qeeb qeeb thiab tsis muaj zog thov sab nraum Suav teb," Fitch Solutions tau hais. Qhov ntawd tau hais tias, muaj kev pheej hmoo rau peb cov nqi kwv yees raws li kev lag luam muaj zog rov qab los hauv Suav teb yuav thawb cov nqi txhuas siab dua peb cov kev kwv yees tam sim no. "
Tsawg khoom muag
Ntawm cov khoom siv, cov tsev tshawb fawb hauv Asmeskas xav kom cov khoom siv txhuas los ntawm Tuam Tshoj thiab Europe kom nruj, uas yuav muab kev txhawb nqa ntxiv rau cov nqi raws li cov teeb meem hluav taws xob tseem cuam tshuam rau kev tsim khoom thiab cov nqi hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv.
Norsk Hydro cov lus hais tias nws 600, 000 tons ntawm txhuas muaj peev xwm "tseem muaj kev pheej hmoo" yog tias tus nqi hluav taws xob nce ntxiv, ING Xav tau hais.
Lwm qhov laj thawj Goldman xav kom cov nqi txhuas nce xyoo no yog tias cov khoom muag tam sim no nyob rau theem qis tshaj hauv 21 xyoo.
Muaj cov lus ceeb toom tias kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv Suav teb tau qeeb qeeb.
Lavxias teb sab aluminium ntau lawm yuav poob
Ib puag ncig zoo macro, tus nqi qis dua thiab qis dua Fed tus nqi nce mus yuav ua rau nce nqi, Goldman tau hais.
Fitch Solutions tau hais tias European aluminium ntau lawm yuav txuas ntxiv cuam tshuam los ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob ntau dua. Txawm hais tias kev tsim khoom yuav tsis raug mob hnyav npaum li nws tau muaj nyob rau xyoo 2022, cov khoom tsim tawm yuav ua rau qeeb qeeb hauv lub sijhawm luv mus rau nruab nrab vim tias cov refineries maj mam rov qab los hauv online.
Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas tau hais tias Lavxias cov khoom lag luam aluminium yuav raug cuam tshuam los ntawm cov nqi nkag siab dua ntsig txog kev rau txim.
Fitch Solutions cia siab tias Lavxias teb sab aluminium ntau lawm yuav poob li ntawm 3 feem pua ntawm xyoo rau xyoo 2023.
Guangdong Zhonglian Aluminium Profiles Co., Ltd. yog lub chaw tsim khoom loj ntawm txhuas profile tshwj xeeb hauv kev tsim, tsim thiab tsim aluminium extrusion. Xav tiv tauj peb yog tias koj xav tau kev pab.
